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EFOR annual analysis and prognosis report

2015 EFOR annual report: political errors from 2014; what is to be done


The economic forecast for 2015

The experts consulted by us concluded that in 2015 the economic growth remains modest, as modest as the economy of EU partners allows it. Cutting the investments was the biggest mistake of the past year. At the same time, the instability of the fiscal policy is also to be blamed, which was conducted in a dilettante manner, with tax increases insufficiently explained in the first part of year, and a shock cut of CAS that was strongly motivated by the elections in the second part that is now creating problems.

On the other hand, 2015 is the year of decommissioning of the EU funds. We anticipate a monstrous scandal and a loss of 6 billion euro. With all the efforts to save the situation made by the new Romanian commissary, Corina Creţu, it is still not clear what more can be invented in the remaining year in order to spend half the money still left from EU, because in the first 8 years after the adherence we only spent the other half of it.

61% of the panelists said that the government will no longer be in office at the end of the year 2015.

The migration of the local politicians

This migration, allowed only for 45 days through the Government Emergency Ordinance 55/2014 in the eve of the presidential electoral campaign, represented without doubt the most disputed politico – juridical event of last year. As a result 552 mayors and 4800 local and county councilors migrated, because of this there are counties in which the political equilibrium was completely compromised. The local and county councilors should lose their mandates by default; for the mayors the Parliament has little leeway, but it would be expected to end their mandates too.

We launched The Political Migration Map, an on-line instrument which shows how the migration affected the mayors.

The electoral code, a nobody’s project

The presidential elections in 2014 brought in the public discussion many problems for which decision makers must find (good) solutions as soon as possible. The Electoral Code, the law on political parties, the parties funding law, the vote abroad and punishing the guilty for restricting of the right to vote in the 2014 elections must be absolute priorities. The new regulations should be discussed transparently with the media and with the civil society participation, in the broadest sense.

The electoral legislation must include legal stipulations regarding the informational system of checking in real time the CNPs, consolidating the rights of the observers, reforming the system of appeals and instruments to reduce pressure of the local actors involved illegally in the voting process.

Energy market: sure steps, but small. How well is doing the ANRE regulator?

After two years we reevaluated the quality of governance and ANRE regulations, in the context of a much different energy sector. The greatest success of the past two years is the liberalization of the energy market, and the disappearance of various preferential contracts with the so called “wise guys” at the same time the liberalization took place because of the fear of prosecutors. The ANRE regulator played an important role, supporting liberalization even against political pressure to delay. However, serious problems remain unsolved. It is essential to institute a climate of integrity – especially after the corruption scandal involving a vice-president ANRE. The ability to resist the more subtle political pressure, such as the miners’ strike for a preferential regime for the sector. Maybe the most important thing: the need for a strategic and more transparent view in order to regulate a complex and dynamic sector.

Why don’t we have highways and still lose EU’s funds: a case study and a forecast for future

The infrastructure expert, Cătălin Drulă, shows that 63% of the interval of the 9 years interval during which we could have spent the money on POS-T (The Operational program on transport) was spent doing absolutely nothing. The years 2007 – 2009 representing 33% of this period, were completely lost. Between 2010 and 2011 the things started to accelerate, the work on A1 had begun, but the bad decisions, the superficial preparation of the projects initiated at this stage and misfortune, led to significant delays in carrying out the work contracted and initiated in this interval. The period 2012-2013 was one of deadlock and confusion, characterized by delayed auctions and prioritizing the Prahova Valley (Comarnic-Braşov) highway.

2014 was a year of relative unblocking, but the preparation of new projects suffered from a lack of vision. For 2016-2017 the situation looks better, but only if other problems of funding don’t interfere. For Comarnic – Brasov highway we need a better and cheaper plan.

Read the report here.

Watch the conference recording here.



Project financed by EEA Grants 2009 – 2014, within the NGO Fund in Romania and by a grant of the Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD)

The content of this website does not necessarily represent the official position of the EEA Grants 2009-2014. The entire responsibility for the correctness and consistency of information presented rests with the initiators of the website; for official information about the EEA and Norway Grants access



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