EFOR analyzed how incumbent mayors changed their political options ahead of the 2024 elections. Declaratively, some had done so earlier – that is, they changed the party through agreements at the local level, even if not administratively.
Main conclusions
- EFOR highlights that these regulations put in place for the 2024 June elections create a great potential for political migration and affect legislative predictability, similar to the context generated by GEO 55/2014 for the regulation of some measures regarding local public administration
- The existence of situations in which the current mayor will no longer be elected will probably complicate governance at the local level, including from the perspective of organizing elections in the fall.
- Regarding local and county councilors, Constitutional Court decisions already invalidate political migration during the mandate, such as RCC Decision no. 761/2014 which finds that GEO 55/2014 violates art. 147 para. (4) from the Constitution
- In the report, we analyzed whether the incumbent mayors are still running for these elections and whether they are running for the same party or have changed parties. We did not analyze whether the person in question ran for another position or in another constituency, especially since in local elections candidacies are related to the candidate’s domicile.
Research methodology and limitations:
- The research has certain limitations related to the quality of the data. Data from the 2020 election has been updated from various sources, but in the absence of an official public statement showing who is currently mayor and from which party, errors may occur.
- The database has been updated with the results of the 2021 by-elections, but does not necessarily include the latest data related to the several dozen communes that do not have a mayor and where the government has refused to hold elections. Therefore, these statistics may include some inaccuracies generated by updating the data. In addition, the analysis is based on names, and if there are 2 people with the same name in the same constituency we have no way to tell them apart.
- In 2023 we showed that although the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Local Development have the obligation to collect this data with a frequency established by the legislation, in practice the updating of the lists is defective and obtaining the information was difficult.
- The analysis is based on data published by the Central Electoral Bureau for the elections of June 9, 2024, on the results of the 2020 and 2021 elections, updated by EFOR.
Data
- In the report, we analyzed whether the incumbent mayors are still running for these elections and whether they are running for the same party or have changed parties. We did not analyze whether the person in question ran for another position or in another constituency, especially since in local elections candidacies are related to the candidate’s domicile.
- The number of constituencies we refer to is 3,187, according to the data published by the Permanent Electoral Authority.
- 377 mayors (12%) are no longer running in these elections, for various reasons – they are no longer on the mayoral candidate lists.
- In 415 cases (13%), the party these represented no longer corresponds to the current one, from which they are running.
- 91% of cases are in communes, 3% in municipalities and 6% in cities
- PSD received the most candidates
- PNL won 99 candidates, the most from PSD (39) and independents (21) and lost 188 candidates.
- PSD won 279 candidates, the most from PNL (174) and PMP (27) and lost 48.
- 9 mayors migrated to AUR, of which 3 in Bacău county
- USR lost 26 mayors, of which more than half went to PSD. Only one mayor left the PNL for the USR
- The most mayors who changed parties were identified in the counties of Teleorman (25), Vâlcea (21), Buzău (20), Timiș and Caraș Severin (19 each).
- PSD won 23 mayors in Teleorman and 20 in Vâlcea
- PNL attracted 9 mayors in Suceava and 8 in Giurgiu